Welcome to Air Monitor 2024
After three years of turbulence, is managing an air program going to get any easier?
Supply and demand are finding equilibrium as airlines add capacity and the leisure demand that drove record carrier revenues in 2023 softens. As we describe in Air Monitor 2024, air fares are set to stabilize, with prices falling on some routes.
But even as we see signs of moderation, the wider outlook is uncertain. Geopolitical tensions could spill over into the global economy, dampening already moderate growth prospects.
The world’s carriers continue to face headwinds. Cost pressures - most notably fuel, wage bills and debt servicing costs – could weigh on airline balance sheets.
Meanwhile, aviation is in the throes of a digital transformation that is reshaping the relationship between airlines and corporate customers. The arrival of modern air retailing is about much more than technology or access to content; it could mean a complete overhaul in how you manage your air program.
Air Monitor 2024 can help you chart a course through these unpredictable times. As well as fare forecasts, you’ll find advice from Amex GBT Consulting to help you navigate disruption and anticipate change. Working with us, clients paid on average 9% less than peers for business class seats in 2023.1 And fare levels are just part of the value equation; we can help you build a complete air program that meets the needs of your business and your travelers.
Dan Beauchamp Head of Consulting Amex GBT
Methodology
Amex GBT used Prophet time series modeling to generate the price forecasts in Air Monitor 2024. The data for the analysis came from Amex GBT’s vast data lake, International Air Transport Association (IATA) passenger data and airline capacity data including number of seats and Available Seat Mile (ASM) data from Cirium Diio. We have used Inflation and GDP forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in our predictive model. Prices are in local currency.
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